Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 34.015906 36.740687 39.705905 43.195715 47.221242 51.757363 57.311165
2025-05-04 30.366460 34.067646 38.366997 43.815714 50.667673 59.191141 70.931066
2025-05-11 27.730619 31.852900 36.844101 43.489124 52.367848 64.260230 82.278419
2025-05-18 25.697070 30.027661 35.434125 42.907739 53.385599 68.311322 92.925040
2025-05-25 23.981214 28.392046 34.030524 42.060444 53.769464 71.346204 102.632511
2025-06-01 22.554084 26.988555 32.768520 41.207984 53.937306 73.958564 112.245924
2025-06-08 21.234036 25.620608 31.425970 40.072881 53.479225 75.407816 120.076196
2025-06-15 20.817434 25.416621 31.638167 41.178663 56.593514 83.387398 143.941436
2025-06-22 20.052805 24.682451 31.040842 40.993173 57.559772 87.697355 161.712045
2025-06-29 19.211114 23.790978 30.153467 40.269829 57.505462 90.027367 175.723240
2025-07-06 18.321088 22.786968 29.041908 39.100153 56.529569 90.325119 184.393882
2025-07-13 18.155703 22.793203 29.404794 40.304398 59.924557 100.446678 229.634491
2025-07-20 17.882492 22.651135 29.566675 41.248352 63.096119 111.312422 291.335546
2025-07-27 17.528687 22.374677 29.507586 41.819004 65.658171 121.686945 369.162083
2025-08-03 17.002751 21.817035 28.975471 41.516417 66.402229 127.649811 437.898764
2025-08-10 16.464727 21.216738 28.341391 40.977658 66.573049 132.125254 510.271374
2025-08-17 15.911457 20.571016 27.601915 40.191858 66.109631 134.656718 578.027932
2025-08-24 15.393084 19.958702 26.887181 39.400503 65.540612 136.761025 653.394791
2025-08-31 14.851330 19.292798 26.058027 38.345566 64.264553 136.312479 704.154460
2025-09-07 14.761582 19.311267 26.337969 39.373270 67.907325 153.753317 1148.121011
2025-09-14 14.443123 18.964959 26.000282 39.200969 68.690511 161.523221 1583.196472
2025-09-21 14.048148 18.487091 25.423828 38.528703 68.167494 164.137593 1970.584591
2025-09-28 13.595266 17.906644 24.655693 37.440434 66.497279 161.657816 2126.223997